Farmers are adapting their business models to capitalize on these conditions. Kenny Rufener of Congress Lake Farms notes they shifted from finishing cattle for beef to selling calves shortly after birth — a strategy that has boosted profits by about 30% while reducing risk exposure.

This approach reflects a broader trend: in high-price markets, producers often pivot to faster-turnover revenue streams, especially when the market rewards replacement stock more than finished animals. This adaptation demonstrates Ohio farmers’ resilience and responsiveness to market forces.

The proposed Isabelle ordinance would require any farm with 1,000 or more animal units (about 700 dairy cows) to apply for a local operations permit. Applicants would need to:

• Submit plans for manure management, air quality control, fire safety, and road maintenance

• Demonstrate how they will prevent water pollution, disease spread, and environmental damage

• Provide financial assurances to cover potential cleanup costs if pollution occurs

This proposal follows rising nitrate levels in local groundwater. A recent report showed 14% of wells in Pierce County exceeded federal nitrate limits, with agriculture identified as the primary source. Isabelle officials say the ordinance is designed to protect public health, preserve local water quality, and hold operators accountable.

Michigan agriculture is a diverse but soybean-heavy state, with soybeans consistently ranking among its top field crops. Any disruption in global soybean demand can directly impact Michigan’s farm economy in several ways:

• Price Volatility: If China continues bypassing U.S. soybeans, this could suppress futures prices, directly affecting cash bids at Michigan grain elevators.

• Export Market Risk: Reduced export demand creates greater reliance on domestic buyers, potentially limiting upside for Michigan producers.

• Input Cost Pressure: When revenue expectations soften, tight margins magnify the impact of seed, fertilizer, and fuel costs, especially for highly leveraged operations.

While Michigan’s farm economy has been resilient, it remains closely tied to international demand cycles—especially for soybeans, corn, and other cash crops that dominate the state’s central and southern counties.

Despite the confidence in policy direction, producers are still facing considerable challenges. The two biggest concerns cited for the upcoming year include:

• Rising input costs (39%)

• Lower crop and livestock prices (29%)

Input costs—including seed, fertilizer, and fuel—remain a critical stress point for farmers across all sectors, squeezing margins and complicating planning for the next crop year. On the revenue side, producers are wary of declining commodity prices, especially as global supply chains shift and demand remains unpredictable.

Livestock Sector Still Thriving

Dr. Michael Langemeier, Director of Purdue’s Center for Commercial Agriculture, added that optimism varies somewhat between crop and livestock producers.

“We have to remember that a pretty large percentage of our survey is beef producers, which is about 20% of the survey, and they’re doing quite well—particularly the cow/calf sector, which is seeing record profitability,” Langemeier noted.

This differentiation underscores the broader reality in U.S. agriculture today: while some sectors face compressed margins, others—particularly cattle operations—are thriving under favorable market conditions.

What It Means for Ag Lending and Appraisals

At AgValue Consulting, we pay close attention to these sentiment surveys and economic trends. Farmer outlook plays a significant role in land values, lending risk assessments, and long-term planning decisions for our clients. As policy shifts and commodity dynamics evolve, our expert appraisal and valuation services help ensure our clients make informed, forward-thinking decisions rooted in market realities.

If your operation is navigating uncertain terrain and you need assistance with appraisals, lending support, or expert consultation, contact AgValue Consulting today. We’re here to help you understand your property’s value and chart a course with confidence.

ASF is not new. Its devastating sweep across China in 2018–2019 wiped out nearly 50% of that nation’s domestic pig population, resulting in economic losses exceeding $100 billion. That crisis disrupted pork markets worldwide, and in some cases, artificially inflated farmland and livestock values due to increased demand and shifting production strategies.

Vietnam’s current outbreak is particularly alarming because of its rapid spread and low vaccine uptake, despite the country approving its first domestically produced ASF vaccine in 2023. According to government reports, only 30% of pigs in certain provinces are vaccinated, which may reflect supply shortages, cost barriers, or efficacy concerns.

Why U.S. Agriculture Should Pay Attention

Although ASF has not yet reached U.S. soil, the disease’s resurgence in Southeast Asia poses several indirect risks for American producers and investors:

1. Volatility in International Pork Prices

Outbreaks in key pork-producing nations like Vietnam and the Philippines may increase global pork prices, shifting import-export dynamics and influencing production decisions here at home. This can create short-term market distortions that impact everything from feeder pig values to the cost of protein alternatives.

2. Increased Biosecurity Requirements

As ASF risk persists globally, expect tighter biosecurity mandates at ports of entry, processing plants, and feedlots. For appraisers and lenders, this means updating valuation models to reflect capital investments in disease prevention infrastructure, such as facility upgrades or bio-containment retrofits.

3. Insurance and Risk Management Adjustments

Outbreaks like these often lead to changes in livestock insurance requirements and underwriting policies. Farms near international shipping hubs or with large-scale pork operations may experience new risk classifications that impact their appraisal values and borrowing potential.

Implications for Appraisal and Consulting Work

At AgValue Consulting, we understand that livestock disease outbreaks—whether local or international—can materially affect farm valuations. Here’s how:

• Asset Devaluation: In areas of outbreak, swine facilities and feed infrastructure may experience significant value loss if production ceases or transitions to another commodity.

• Future Income Projections: Outbreaks disrupt income streams, which are critical in income-based appraisal methods. We work with producers and lenders to reassess these figures during and after an outbreak.

• Operational Pivoting: Some producers may choose to shift away from pork and into other sectors such as poultry or row crops, requiring updated land use appraisals and strategic consulting.

• Compliance and Legal Consulting: Government directives in response to outbreaks (like those from Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh) often influence policy and environmental review requirements. We assist attorneys and regulators with expert reports and testimony in disputes tied to disease-related business disruption.

Looking Ahead: Vaccines, Biosecurity, and U.S. Readiness

Vietnam’s struggles with vaccine distribution and adoption highlight a crucial concern: having a vaccine is not the same as deploying it effectively. The U.S. must take this lesson seriously. Should ASF reach North America, rapid, coordinated response protocols and public-private vaccine logistics will be critical to minimize damage.

In the meantime, the USDA and industry leaders continue to monitor international outbreaks closely, reinforcing surveillance and updating trade policy as needed.

Final Thoughts

Disease outbreaks like African Swine Fever aren’t just headlines from overseas—they are signals of global agricultural interconnectedness. Whether you’re an investor, landowner, or agricultural lender, understanding how international events shape domestic values is critical.

At AgValue Consulting, we bring decades of expertise in agricultural valuation, livestock facility assessments, and expert witness services to help you navigate an increasingly complex and interconnected agricultural landscape.

📞 Contact us today to schedule a consultation or request a livestock or facility valuation tailored to today’s dynamic market conditions.

The 2024 season was a textbook case of everything that could go wrong, doing just that. An overly wet spring created ideal conditions for disease pressure—particularly devastating in forages where chemical control options are limited. Then, the weather turned bone dry through the critical summer production period. Even when rain did return, it was too much too fast, followed by six-week dry spells. Many producers across Georgia, especially in the north, were unable to build stockpile reserves for winter due to the fall drought, leading to widespread forage shortfalls.

Adding insult to injury, fall armyworms blanketed nearly every county in Georgia, cutting into yields and forcing producers to spend heavily on insecticides—an unexpected and steep input cost.

2025 Outlook: Higher Input Costs, Lower Hay Supplies

According to Baxter, this year isn’t looking much easier. Seed availability is tight due to weather issues in the western U.S., and fertilizer prices remain stubbornly high. Many forage growers are heading into 2025 with empty hay barns, limited reserves, and grazing challenges that could affect herd size decisions. The guidance from UGA Extension is clear: carefully manage stocking rates early and match herd sizes to forage availability.

At AgValue Consulting, we’re already seeing these conditions affect client needs—especially in:

• Farm Appraisals: Forage shortfalls and increased input costs directly impact net farm income, which can influence land values and appraisal outcomes. Fields once deemed productive are being re-evaluated based on volatility and recovery potential.

• Dairy and Livestock Operations: Operations relying on hay as a feed component are facing margin pressure. If hay availability remains tight, herd downsizing may occur, altering operational cash flows and affecting the valuation outlook.

• Poultry & Cattle Farm Lending: Ag lenders are asking more detailed questions around input costs, forage planning, and risk mitigation. Our clients are leaning on us for clear, evidence-backed assessments as they restructure debt or expand.

• Farm Machinery & Equipment Appraisals: An uptick in pivots being repurposed for forage production means more demand for customized machinery appraisals—particularly where multi-use or cross-functional assets are involved.

Strategic Advice for AgValue Clients

If you’re a Georgia forage or livestock producer navigating these headwinds, here’s what to consider:

• Update Your Appraisal: Market volatility in land and forage productivity should prompt updated valuations for refinancing, insurance coverage, or asset planning.

• Document Your Challenges: For clients seeking disaster relief programs, crop insurance claims, or conservation funding, clear records of 2024 losses and 2025 planning efforts are key.

• Evaluate Input ROI: Higher seed and fertilizer prices demand tighter financial analysis. We can help evaluate which investments will actually boost value—and which may need to be scaled back or delayed.

At AgValue Consulting, we’re not just watching trends—we’re helping clients adapt to them. Our deep experience in agricultural valuations across the Southeast means we understand not only what’s happening, but what it means for your operation’s worth and long-term viability.

If you need help assessing how 2024’s challenges and 2025’s forecast will impact your property or operation, contact us today.

As agricultural appraisers and consultants, we view these developments through a lens of value generation and long-term impact. Here’s why these loans matter—and what they might mean for your land or ag operation.

🏗️ Infrastructure Loans Increase Long-Term Property Value

The AILP supports construction and capital projects that go far beyond short-term fixes. Permanent farm structures—such as barns, grain bins, dairy parlors, and poultry houses—are key drivers of a farm’s use value and productivity profile. These additions are typically capitalized into land valuations, boosting both collateral strength for lenders and sale value for property owners.

For appraisers, it’s critical to recognize these improvements during site inspections and account for them in cost and income approaches.

🌱 Support for Beginning Farmers Influences Land Demand

The BFLP fuels opportunity for young producers to enter or expand within agriculture—a trend that’s been vital in offsetting the sector’s aging demographics. As beginning farmers gain access to capital, we often see increased demand for farmland, working capital, and equipment—especially in areas where land is still relatively affordable.

These dynamics tend to raise competition and valuations in counties where programs like BFLP are active—such as Gallatin, Grayson, Hart, and Trigg Counties, all of which received loan funding in this round.

📊 Loan Activity = Market Confidence

Thirteen loans might not sound like much at first glance, but they represent real economic motion. When farmers are building infrastructure and young producers are expanding into ownership roles, it reflects confidence in agricultural profitability—even amid market uncertainties.

In counties like Graves, Calloway, and Washington—where multiple loans were approved—we expect to see ripple effects in land sales, rental rates, and equipment investment, which influence not only appraisals but also farm succession plans and lender activity.

Farmers like Brent Griggs in Gibson County are turning more acres over to corn this year due to a combination of improved early-season planting conditions, rotational strategy, and corn’s comparative economic advantage over soybeans and wheat. Although corn prices aren’t ideal, they still offer better yield potential and price performance than competing crops in 2025, especially considering weather-related issues that suppressed corn planting in 2024.

For many producers, this strategic pivot is about maximizing return per acre under persistent market volatility. And while Griggs’ story is rooted in West Tennessee, the decision-making patterns he describes reflect a broader agricultural trend we’re tracking across the Southeast.

While Brood XIV cicadas don’t harm humans or animals, they do lay eggs in small branches of trees and woody plants. For many landowners, that creates concern, particularly in operations with:

• Young fruit orchards

• Nut trees

• Vineyards and ornamental nurseries

• High-value landscaping operations

UK entomologist Jonathan Larson notes that the egg-laying process can cause branches to splinter and die back—this is especially true in young or recently planted trees. While the damage is rarely fatal to a tree, it can slow growth, impact yields, and in cases where aesthetics or branch formation are critical (as in vineyards or nursery trees), the damage can affect marketability and operational income.

For property owners with investments in specialty crops or orchards, this could affect year-end cash flow projections—which are often a component in income-based farm valuation models.