Tough Year Behind, Uncertainty Ahead: What Georgia’s Forage Struggles Mean for AgValue Clients in 2025
Vietnam is facing a major resurgence of African Swine Fever (ASF), with the virus now detected in 28 out of 34 provinces, prompting a nationwide effort to contain its spread. Over 30,000 pigs have already been culled, as the disease threatens not only the nation’s food supply but also raises concerns across global agricultural markets.
As valuation professionals and agribusiness consultants, we at AgValue Consulting are closely watching these developments—not just for their impact abroad, but for the potential ripple effects on U.S. livestock valuation, biosecurity protocols, and international trade dynamics.
ASF: A Persistent Threat to Global Pork Production
ASF is not new. Its devastating sweep across China in 2018–2019 wiped out nearly 50% of that nation’s domestic pig population, resulting in economic losses exceeding $100 billion. That crisis disrupted pork markets worldwide, and in some cases, artificially inflated farmland and livestock values due to increased demand and shifting production strategies.
Vietnam’s current outbreak is particularly alarming because of its rapid spread and low vaccine uptake, despite the country approving its first domestically produced ASF vaccine in 2023. According to government reports, only 30% of pigs in certain provinces are vaccinated, which may reflect supply shortages, cost barriers, or efficacy concerns.
Why U.S. Agriculture Should Pay Attention
Although ASF has not yet reached U.S. soil, the disease’s resurgence in Southeast Asia poses several indirect risks for American producers and investors:
1. Volatility in International Pork Prices
Outbreaks in key pork-producing nations like Vietnam and the Philippines may increase global pork prices, shifting import-export dynamics and influencing production decisions here at home. This can create short-term market distortions that impact everything from feeder pig values to the cost of protein alternatives.
2. Increased Biosecurity Requirements
As ASF risk persists globally, expect tighter biosecurity mandates at ports of entry, processing plants, and feedlots. For appraisers and lenders, this means updating valuation models to reflect capital investments in disease prevention infrastructure, such as facility upgrades or bio-containment retrofits.
3. Insurance and Risk Management Adjustments
Outbreaks like these often lead to changes in livestock insurance requirements and underwriting policies. Farms near international shipping hubs or with large-scale pork operations may experience new risk classifications that impact their appraisal values and borrowing potential.
Implications for Appraisal and Consulting Work
At AgValue Consulting, we understand that livestock disease outbreaks—whether local or international—can materially affect farm valuations. Here’s how:
Asset Devaluation: In areas of outbreak, swine facilities and feed infrastructure may experience significant value loss if production ceases or transitions to another commodity.
Future Income Projections: Outbreaks disrupt income streams, which are critical in income-based appraisal methods. We work with producers and lenders to reassess these figures during and after an outbreak.
Operational Pivoting: Some producers may choose to shift away from pork and into other sectors such as poultry or row crops, requiring updated land use appraisals and strategic consulting.
Compliance and Legal Consulting: Government directives in response to outbreaks (like those from Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh) often influence policy and environmental review requirements. We assist attorneys and regulators with expert reports and testimony in disputes tied to disease-related business disruption.
Looking Ahead: Vaccines, Biosecurity, and U.S. Readiness
Vietnam’s struggles with vaccine distribution and adoption highlight a crucial concern: having a vaccine is not the same as deploying it effectively. The U.S. must take this lesson seriously. Should ASF reach North America, rapid, coordinated response protocols and public-private vaccine logistics will be critical to minimize damage.
In the meantime, the USDA and industry leaders continue to monitor international outbreaks closely, reinforcing surveillance and updating trade policy as needed.
Final Thoughts
Disease outbreaks like African Swine Fever aren’t just headlines from overseas—they are signals of global agricultural interconnectedness. Whether you’re an investor, landowner, or agricultural lender, understanding how international events shape domestic values is critical.
At AgValue Consulting, we bring decades of expertise in agricultural valuation, livestock facility assessments, and expert witness services to help you navigate an increasingly complex and interconnected agricultural landscape.
📞 Contact us today to schedule a consultation or request a livestock or facility valuation tailored to today’s dynamic market conditions.